Finance Bill Likely to Pass With Bank Fees Removed

Regardless of the merits of the bill, which like any large overhaul of a financial system can be argued in circles, there was some interesting politics going on this week. Democrats cleared the way for final votes in the House and Senate after making a fix requested by Republican senators, who objected to charging banks and hedge funds $19 billion to help pay for the measure. So, who were the Republican senators who bucked their party to support the bill?

Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, both Maine Republican along with Scott Brown of Massachusetts. This of course isn't surprising as all three are traditional New England Republicans, in other words, moderates. However, here is where the interesting bit of political theater comes in. 

One of these senators decided to put a hold on the bill because of a tax increase on banks. That senator? Scott Brown, the junior member of the New England coalition. This allowed him to have a day in the news as the conservative who was standing in the way of the Democrats once again trying to raise taxes. Was there any substantive change? That is debatable. But theatrics show that Brown is more than just a flash in the pan- he has some real skill in manipulating a storyline.

Scott Brown Outpolls Obama

in Massachusetts anyway.

Sen. Scott Brown, who turn Massachusetts politics on its head by winning Ted Kennedy's Senate seat " is today the most popular officeholder in Massachusetts," according to a Boston Globe poll.

Brown outpolls  President Obama and Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) in popularity and "gets high marks not only from Republicans, but even a plurality of Democrats views him favorably."

Budget? I Don't Need No Stinkin' Budget!

Apparently while you, I and every business needs to budget their money, the US Congress is exempt. No congress since Nixon has operated free of a budget. Jeff Anderson at The Weekly Standard had this to say on the subject:

With no congressional budget forthcoming, we can now safely assume that President Obama's budget is the one that Congress will (sort of) be using.  Therefore, we can now say with even greater certainty than before that the deficits run up by this Congress will surpass the cumulative deficits of the past four Congresses combined, which is extraordinary even by the usual standards of recent Democratic Congresses.  And we can now say with equal certainty that President Obama's deficit spending for his first two years will exceed President Bush's deficit spending for his entire 8-year presidency. .

More Americans Call Themselves Conservative

You never know how this will translate come election time but as of right now things look good for Republicans and Blue Dog Democrats. A new Gallup poll finds 42% of Americans describe themselves as conservative,  35% are moderates and only 20% call themselves liberals.

Gen. Patraeus, President Obama and the Afghan War

One has to wonder if by choosing Gen. Petraeus to replace Gen. McCrystal that Obama is giving up some authority over the Afghanistan War. Petraeus is clearly coming in to save Obama's bacon, as it were, and you have to think he had some prerequisites before taking on this job. Will he have more of a free hand when it comes to shaping policy? The military professionals are all on the same page that we need more troops for a longer period of time, and that naming an exit date is counterproductive.

“I believe Gen. Petraeus can do the job and I’m convinced Gen. Petraeus will say at the hearings that he will give his best advice to the president as to what the conditions are at the time, probably next year,” McCain said.

“You cannot tell the enemy when you’re leaving in warfare and expect your strategy to be able to prevail. That’s just a fundamental of warfare and I know it.”- John McCain

In the meantime the Afghan War in general is starting to sound a lot more reminiscent of the Viet Nam conflict than the Iraq war ever did. Consider this quote from the Wall Street Journal:

There is growing frustration among front-line troops, who blame spiking casualties on increasingly restrictive rules of engagement. Platoon and company commanders in the southern provinces of Kandahar and Helmand openly speak of having to fight with one hand tied behind their back.

Use of indirect fire such as mortars requires so many layers of approval that, by the time it's secured, the intended targets are often long gone. Helicopter gunships are usually not allowed to shoot if the pilots don't see their targets holding weapons—even if these men had been spotted firing at American infantry just seconds earlier.

The result, troops complain, is that the U.S. has surrendered much of its technological advantage over the Taliban, who can trump coalition forces in an equal fight because of superior knowledge of the terrain and ability to blend in with civilians.

 Time will tell whether the new general, who has a higher profile and much stronger pedigree, will overpower the relatively inexperienced young president. However, it is clear that this war is now Obama's war and Americans of all political stripes should be hoping that Gen. Patraeus can succeed.

Americans Pessimistic About Obama

Somewhere McCain is laughing....

When it rains it pours. Just after I posted about this week's Gallup poll I came across this equally bad news for the President. A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds Americans "are more pessimistic about the state of the country and less confident in President Obama's leadership than at any point since Mr. Obama entered the White House.....62% feel the country is on the wrong track, the highest level since before the 2008 election. Just one-third think the economy will get better over the next year, a 7-point drop from a month ago and the low point of Mr. Obama's tenure."

Voters Sour on Obama's Dems

DOH!

 

More bad news for the president's party. It was less than 2 years ago that the democrats swept into power promising hope and change. How do the voters feel about it now? A new Gallup poll finds that 20% of Americans approve of the Democratic-lead Congress.

"This year's low approval ratings for Congress are a potentially ominous sign for President Obama and the Democratic majority in Congress. Gallup has found greater party seat change in Congress in midterm elections when Congress has had low approval ratings. Specifically, in the five midterm elections in which Congress' approval ratings at the time of the election were below 40%, there was an average net change in seats of 29 from the president's party to the opposition."

New Poll for Crist vs. Rubio

A  Florida Chamber of Commerce poll has Crist with a large lead over both Rubio (R) and Meek (D) in the U.S. Senate race.  Crist is ahead with 42%, followed by Rubio at 31% and Meek at 14%.Of course Crist has been tacking hard to the left, and Meek has some serious problems of his own causing many Democrats to side with Crist. 

I have always liked the centrist Crist, but I am beginning to be concerned that if he makes it through he may be stuck a de facto Democrat due to his positional leanings of late.

Does Twilight's Success Predict Romney Win?

According to The Hill's Bernie Quigley, it might.

...I have a latent “inner compass” theory about politics. It goes that we happy and playful Americans, like myself, who are not as organized as Mitt Romney just send forth anyone to be governor or president based on the fun factor: how much fun we can have, how much we can get away with, how much money we can make, how many entitlements we can squeeze out of it before it all goes to pieces. Then when we feel it start to wobble, we send out for a Roosevelt or an Eisenhower or a Reagan to put the pieces back together. That is, we get the guy with the unflappable overview, resolute discipline and unwavering moral compass to put us back together. We enter rehab voluntarily. We put ourselves into receivership. We throw ourselves at the mercy of the courts.

We could well be there by the end of “Recovery Summer.” Time to send in the Mormons …  I mean, the Cullens. Mitt Romney, save us!

Obama, Oil Spills and Rhetoric

Want to know what America thought of the President's speech this week and the administration's response to the oil disaster in general? Just take a look at the headlines.

Obama's Vision Deficit on Display - Nick Gillespie, AOL News
A Different Kind of Malaise Hobbles Dems - E.J. Dionne, Washington Post
The Pulpit of a Bully - Jay Cost, RealClearPolitics
Boring Speech Policy: Obama Knows What He's Doing - Gail Collins, NYT
Wasted (Air) Time - David Broder, Washington Post
Slippery Start: U.S. Response to Spill Falters - Ball & Weisman, WSJ
Obama's Management Problem - Tina Brown, The Daily Beast
The Spill & the Climate Change Dilemma - Bradford Plumer, New Republic
Obama's Gulf War III - Victor Davis Hanson, Pajamas Media
The Spill Means We Need More Windmills? - Andrew Malcolm, LA Times
Meeting BP: Why Didn't This Happen 6 Weeks Ago? - Steven Pearlstein, WP
Obama Looks in Over His Head - Jonah Goldberg, New York Post
Is Obama Getting Bad Advice? - Robert Reich, Huffington Post
Obama Promises a Brighter Day. (Details to Come.) - Roger Simon, Politico
Speeches Are Nice, But Obama Has to Deliver - Lynn Sweet, Chicago ST
Crude Grab for Power Never Ends - Michael Goodwin, New York Post

And take a good look at where these articles are coming from. These are not NewsMax, or Fox News posts; they are legitimate, and in some cases left-leaning publications, that are coming dangerously close to comparing Obama's response to the oil spill to Bush's response to Katrina.

Lesson From Massachusetts on Health Care Costs

There is a great article on CNN's site today about what the federal government has in store based on what a similar health care plan in MA has done. It lists 5 painful lessons.

Lesson 1: The Massachusetts plan does not control costs.

Lesson 2: Community rating, guaranteed issue and mandated benefits swell costs.

Lesson 3: Huge subsidies for low-to-medium earners could prove extremely expensive.

Lesson 4: The exchanges reward people for working less and earning less.

Lesson 5: The generous plans and added mandates give employers an incentive to drop health insurance.   

So not only does the new health care law most likely weaken our health care system- it will add to our crippling debt.

Federal Spending..Good Grief!

This video needs no explanation. Watch it and weep....

Political Newbies, 2010 and Vindication of the right

Ultimately, this isn’t a game. Ultimately, what matters is not winning but governing. People’s lives depend on it. The nation’s future depends on it. Politics is difficult; governing is hard. Learning lines, winning debates, scoring points against your rival — that’s tough, but not nearly as tough as getting things done once you’re in office.

This is a quote from
Susan Estrich, Democratic pundit, writer and operative. She is saying this in reference to the coming wave of "throw the bums out mentality." She argues that by throwing out people with experience and replacing them with newbies we could have real problems in the future.

While she may, or may not, have a point about the coming wave of 2010, isn't it funny how much her point echos what many of us on the right were saying about Obama just a couple years ago?

Pioneer Life, Tea Parties and the Modern Man - Part II

Yesterday I ended part one of this post with a question of sorts.

Could we, could I, approximate this lifestyle today? While we all speak of wanting government out of our lives- do we really? I'm so spoiled today I get upset when my town considers suspending trash pick up service, and yet I still call myself a conservative.

I think my answer would be: We may not have a choice. Before I explain, we need to go back in time a bit, peel back the layers of the nanny state to a time when people truly had liberty and truly had risk. Back to a time when a wrong economic or employment decision could lead to true hardship and even death.

Political Changes of The 20th Century

One has to look to pre-Great Depression America to find this type of life. Much of what we consider

today to be the nanny state has its genesis in the policies of the early 20^th century Progressives. The early 20th century was a time of progressivism, communism and fascism. As the United States entered World War I, President Wilson used it as an excuse to arrest dissidents, close newspapers and recruit tens of thousands of neighborhood informers. He and others believed that the increase in state power was the same as the evolutionary process.

FDR softened, but continued the trend using The Great Depression to revive the idea of war socialism. This ideal continued through the 20^th century: the radicalization of the 1960's, Johnson's “Great Society,” Hillary Clinton's “it takes a village,” and Obama's business-like desire to control everything. This focus on the government as the ultimate answer to happiness, while well intentioned, has lead to debts that are spiraling out of control. We are currently watching Greece fall; Spain and Portugal will most likely be next. And as a video I posted just a couple days ago suggests, the U.S. is not far behind.

Western Civilization Today

Citizens of the Western world, and the U.S. in particular, are like spoiled children. Mom and Dad have been covering for us for the better part of a century, and we of course like it. Unfortunately, Mom and Dad can’t support us indefinitely and we are quickly emptying their reserves. We are metaphorically the 40-year-old still living in our parent’s basement and it is time to get out. The separation is going to be painful.

What happens if we don't leave the protective wing of the nanny state? Well, eventually it will run out of money. Social Security will be here one day and gone the next. Everyone will have government provided health care and then they won't. The shock will be brutal. It would be much better if we weened ourselves off slowly, starting today. Grandfather in people who have always counted on the government to provide, but tell those comming up, clearly and honestly that we can not afford to do this forever. And while we may not need to resort to our pioneering forefathers, they do have some valuable lessons to teach.

• Life is hard, and not everyone wins.
• Hard work gives you a chance at a good life, not a guarantee.
• Freedom from risk, real risk, is servitude. And while it is security; it is certainly not liberty.
•  

As if punctuating my point, Mr. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, warned on Wednesday that “the federal budget appears to be on an unsustainable path.” I'm not the only one who thinks the debt we are incurring will eventually ruin us.

Pioneer Life, Tea Parties and the Modern Man

At a recent library sale my wife happened to pick up a book entitled, Pioneer Life in Western Pennsylvania. It was published in 1940 and was part of a series written in conjunction with the Western Pennsylvania Historic Survey. My wife knows me well as I have always had a thing for old books; the poetry of the prose; the simple style of illustration; the colorful political incorrectness, all make them a pleasure to read. I have only gotten about a third of the way through this book, but I am already seeing some interesting touch points between the lives of the pioneers and the idealized image of early America that many in the Tea Party movement hold dear.

What the Pioneers Believed in  

Americans have inherited from these pioneer men and women, who had been trained in the hard school of experience to win the rights of"life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness," an unusual sense of what is just in lawmaking. It was to establish these rights more firmly that pioneers struggled in the wilderness; they wanted personal liberty and economic freedom, the right to a full life. In pursuit of happiness these men and women sought the unsettled lands of the western country. And they defended their enterprise sturdily, whether they were threatened by poor living, Indians, illness and hunger, or by unjust officials and intruders.

Today's Conservatives

 This ideal sounds a lot like the rhetoric coming from many on the right today. Economic freedom, liberty, the space to make your own life- these are all part of the spirit that animates us. However, as I read through this time-capsule of a book I am struck by how much our forefathers suffered for the sake of their liberty. Near starvation, premature death, crippling poverty, and a work week that simply never ended. And they did this all without any of the safety net that our modern government provides. No medicare, no social security, no unemployment, no low interest home loans.

Could we, could I, approximate this lifestyle today? While we all speak of wanting government out of our lives- do we really? I'm so spoiled today I get upset when my town considers suspending trash pick up service, and yet I still call myself a conservative. 

Something to think about.

Greece's Financial Crisis & Our Possible Future

Crist Stays Competitive in Florida Senate race

Many felt that when Florida Governor Charlie Crist left the Republican Party after Tea party favorite Marco Rubio won over the right that he would be doomed to a distant third place finish. Then when early polls had him holding his own or even taking a small lead they said it was jusy novelty, that it would pass. But now a month after his defection a new Rasmussen poll  Crist and Rubio tied at 37% each with Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) in third place at 15%. A Quinnipiac poll released earlier today gave a small lead to Crist. 

Could a center-right independent win in Florida? Is the GOP leaning to hard to the right, making a third party viable? Pollster Peter Brown has this analysis:

Obviously there is a long time until November, but the Governor is doing very well among independent voters, almost as well among Democrats as Meek, and better among Democrats than Greene. With Rubio getting two-thirds of the Republican vote, the fate of Gov. Crist, who switched from a Republican to independent six weeks ago, depends heavily on his ability to appeal to Democratic voters.

The Moderate Republican: On Facebook

We are experimenting with a new means of reaching our audience. You can now become a fan of The Moderate Republican- right on Facebook.  Share our posts with your friends and invite them to join the conversation.

Scott Brown's Centrism

I know the Tea Party was active in getting Scott Brown elected, but had they spent time looking at his record then, they wouldn't be so surprised now. He is acting exactly like he said he would: as a center-right pragmatist, and The Moderate Republican couldn't be happier to have him as its senator. The Worcester Telegram has a similar viewpoint.

His voting record indicates that Mr. Brown is exactly what he promised he would be: an independent senator not beholden to his party’s line, Congressional leadership, or special interests. To be sure, his embrace of free markets, a pro-business stance, deep concern over rising debts, and a belief that Americans at all levels have had plenty enough of taxes and regulations, do mark Mr. Brown as a fiscal conservative true to his Republican roots.

But Mr. Brown’s story to date is not primarily about party politics, and far from an ideological island isolated from the pressing concerns of real Americans. In alliance with moderates from both sides of the aisle, and with the sometimes grudging respect of heavyweights from both parties, this freshman senator is helping forge a new centrism that holds great promise for breaking the tired paradigms that have marked political life in Washington, D.C., for far too long. 

Hopeless?

"I had a lot of hope for Obama, but it's not panning out."

-Artist Shepard Fairey, in  Angeleno magazine.
Ouch. Why is this significant? Because Fairey created the famous "Hope" image of Obama during the campaign.

Economic Turnaround? Not So Much.

Before the White House can spin the recent numbers we all need a quick reality check. While employers added 431,000 jobs in May, the largest jump for a single month in nearly ten years, the bulk of the growth was in government jobs, mainly the Census. All reports show private-sector job growth was weak. When I wonder do the census workers come off the books? In time for November? Or will another "work for the government" opportunity arise?

Update:
According to Business Week,  the Census actually hired 411,000- almost the total number of May's rise.

Ghost of Specter

While I did not love Specter, I said at the time that I thought it was a bad idea to chase a moderate out of the party. I really hope I am not proved right. A new Garin Hart Yang Research (D) poll has Rep. Joe Sestak (D) with a seven point lead over Rep. Pat Toomey (R).

Bring Back The Fifities

The latest Gallup poll shows Republicans ahead of Democrats by six points, 49% to 43% on the generic congressional ballot.
It's the largest GOP lead in the survey since it began in 1950.