Olberman & Obama Need a Calculator

Note the video clip to the right.  Olbermann was recapping President Obama's SOTU speech and told viewers:

Among those seated with the first lady in the visitor's gallery ... a man from Arizona whose company received $99 million from the stimulus and used it to create at least 50 permanent clean energy jobs.

Of course 50 jobs at the cost of $99 million is nearly $2 million each. Not necessarily an efficient use of tax money.

TARP: $700 Billion Boondoggle?

Cue the outrage and indignation-

According to Neil Barofsky, the special inspector general over the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), the $700 billion economic recovery bill has failed to actually improve much of anything.

"Lending continues to decrease, month after month, and the TARP program designed specifically to address small-business lending — announced in March 2009 — has still not been implemented by Treasury. The TARP foreclosure prevention program has only permanently modified a small fraction of eligible mortgages, and unemployment is the highest it has been in a generation."

So when nearly a trillion dollars of newly acquired debt doesn't do the job what is the obvious next step? Throw more money out the window of course. The Obama administration is urging Congress to pass an additional fiscal stimulus jobs bill. 

On the one hand this level of government spending should and does frighten conservatives out of their minds. The deeper this hole gets the harder it will be for next next true conservative administration ( in 2012?) to fix it. One the other hand conservatives can take some small measure of comfort in knowing this is a real-time object lesson in why we believe in conservatism in the first place, as Barofsky own report states, the financial industry now believes more than ever that the government will bail out firm deemed "to big to fail." And the government efforts to support the housing market risk re-inflating a housing bubble.

It is as if the government were a parent that instead of disciplining an unruly child they bailed them out of trouble again and again. They are only setting themselves up for a lifetime of frustration.For a funny, yet tragic visual of TARP's effects on our nation click HERE.

Common Sense Prevails With GOP Purity Tests

"The RNC avoided a potentially embarrassing resolution that would have given the party an ability to impose sanctions on candidates who do not follow key elements of the GOP platform, a move that would have shone a spotlight on some of the party's best recruits," according to The Hotline.

Thank God. The last thing Republicans need is a purity test just as a wave for center-right governance is building.

Frightening Deficits

The impending deficits are going to make Ronald Regan's military build up of the 80's look small in comparison. And remember at least those deficits brought about the end of the U.S.S.R.. What is Obama's debt going to get us?

Crists and Obama's Troubled Relationship

With Rubio shooting ahead of him in most polls Florida Governor Charlie Crist is now trying to distance himself from President Obama, whom he once embraced (literally). From The Daily Caller:

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist didn’t run away when Barack Obama came to his state for a visit on Thursday, as he did in October. But nor was the welcome warm: the Republican governor planned to greet the president at the airport to confront him over broken promises.

“I’m disappointed that not enough bipartisanship has occurred,” Crist told Florida radio talk show host Jimmy Cefalo on Thursday morning, ahead of Obama’s midday arrival. “He talks about it and gives a great speech, but he’s got to follow through on the action and not just have Republicans come to the table, but incorporate their ideas, incorporate what they want to do, what we want to do.”

But will this be enough to stop Crist's free fall? While moderates are finding ground up north with Scott Brown winning in MA and Castle looking strong in Delaware, in the south Republicans seem to need to be more conservative. This is in fact exactly what we as a party want to see happen. We need a big enough tent to support candidates who can win in their area- moderates in the North, stricter conservatives in the south. What plays best in the west? Any thoughts?

Message to Regular Readers

First off, I want to thank you for regularly reading The Rockefeller Republican. It has been a lot of fun interacting and debating with all of you over the past year and a half.

As you may have noticed the blog has gone through a series of changes lately. As I have written, and taken into consideration the many thoughtful comments from readers I have come to realize I am in fact not a true Rockefeller Republican. Therefore the blog has been renamed and re-purposed The Moderate Republican. Note that the new web address is going to be www.TheModerateRepublican.com. This more truly represents the ideas this blog professes.

I look forward to another year of conversation around all things politics.

Wonder What Senator Brown Meant by That?

Sen. Brown gave an interview to the Boston Globe, where he mentioned a fellow MA Republican, Mitt Romney-

He's changed, he's changed.... It's kind of, and once again it's my opinion but he's really a different guy than I knew when he was here, and I certainly appreciate everything he did for me. And it wasn't a lot, he was just there as the initial -- you know, 'here's a check, go get em! 

I wonder what that means exactly? Romney was certainly absent from Brown's historic campaign and many insiders assumed that was for Brown's benefit. The more outsider he appeared the better. Having the front-runner for the 2012 nomination by your side might not have sent the right message. But on second thought, maybe something else is going on?

Fox is Biased, But Walter Cronkite Wasn't?

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey  Fox News is the only network that more people say they trust than distrust. These are the trust/don't trust spreads: Fox 49% to 37%, CNN 39% to 41%, NBC 35% to 44%, CBS 32% to 46%, and ABC 31% to 46%.

First of all, I have some problems with the poll itself. While I tend to agree with the polls results in that I think Fox's hard news shows tend to be more neutral (though certainly not completely so) it would have had more value if it had been more specific.

What exactly are responders rating? Both Fox and MSNBC have prime time talk shows that are very biased, Fox to the right, MSNBC to the left. However, both networks also have a less slanted presentation during their hard news programs. I wish the poll could somehow have differentiated. When people on the left think of Fox they think Beck/Hannity and do not trust it. When the right hears MSNBC they think Olberman and have similar feelings of distrust.

However, I have an even bigger problem with Public Policy's "analysis":

These numbers suggest quite a shift in what Americans want from their news. A generation ago Walter Cronkite was the most trusted man in the country because of his neutrality. Now people trust Fox the most precisely because of its lack of neutrality. It says a lot about where journalism is headed.

 How can they say Walter Cronkite was unbiased while at the same time claiming Fox is? It has been shown time and time again that the traditional nightly news of decades past was clearly tilted to the left, and Cronkite was a part of that. I don't say this to demonize, but if we are going to discuss bias we have to be fair across the board.

I am assuming most people who find themselves reading this blog will be Fox viewers, but I would still be interested in people's take on this.

Scott Brown Fall Out in Deleware

Scott Brown's election continues to create fallout for the Democrats. According to First Read  "After this weekend's mini frenzy over whether Beau Biden will run for his father's old Senate seat, Beau Biden has now announced -- in an e-mail to supporters and on his Web site -- that he will not run for the seat in 2010. He announced he's running for re-election as attorney general instead."

Does anyone think this isn't a direct result of the national mood against the Democrats in power right now. This seat has to be considered a strong pick up opportunity for Republicans as Mike Castle has been out polling all challengers. Biden was the one Democratic hope for keeping the seat.

Democratic Majority May be in Jeopardy

According to the New York Times  Stuart Rothenberg is going to release his new House ratings Monday and it will show 58 Democratic House seats in play compared to 14 for Republicans. While exact comparisons between 1994 and 2010 can be overplayed, it is certainly looking possible that Republicans could take back the House.

Obama the Populist

After Scott Brown's Massachusetts miracle you'd think the White House would realign to the center a al President Clinton in 1994. No such luck. It seems Obama is willing to double down on bad policy. From Jonah Goldberg:

Not only is the White House in denial that giving Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid control of domestic and economic policy wasn't what voters wanted in 2008, they're in denial that it isn't what voters want in 2010. Instead, the White House is going to play the populist card, attacking the banks they bailed out and the insurance companies they struck sweetheart deals with. The president who mocked Scott Brown's truck - made by GM, a company Obama actually owns - is now going to grab a pitchfork and join the mob at the White House gates.

On the one hand, this should play to Republicans favor in the 2010 mid term elections. On the other hand I think most people, especially those out of work, would like to see some real work done in terms of jobs creation.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Trouble

 In what could be the next Republican gain Sen. Blanche Lincoln's (D-Ark.) who was once thought to be relatively safe, is trailing  two potential Republican foes, and scores just above 40 in match-ups with others according to a new poll from Mason Dixon (625 RVs, 1/18-20, MoE +/- 4%) commissioned by the Arkansas News Bureau. This could be one of many Democratic seats to fall in conservative areas.

Population Growth May Favor West

I listened to a fascinating lecture by Martin Walker, a senior scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center, that discussed how much of the common wisdom regarding population growth may be wrong. Muslim, Latin American, and Asian birthrates are falling, while Western Europe and the U.S. are experiencing modest baby booms. Walker did extensive research on the topic and published his work in The Wilson Quarterly.

I wrote an overview of his argument for Suite101.  If the topic interests you, you can read it here.

Obama Down in Potential 2012 Match-ups

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that for the first time President Obama "trails one of his hypothetical opponents, albeit by the smallest of margins."
Mike Huckabee edges Obama, 45% to 44%.  Mitt Romney does the next best, trailing Obama 44% to 42%, while Sarah Palin trails Obama 49% to 41%.

Democrats, Debt & 401K's

With a debt of 12 trillion and counting I suppose it was only a matter of time. The American taxpayer bailed out the banks, we bailed out the auto industry, now we need to bail out the federal government.

Powerful House Democrats are eyeing proposals to overhaul the nation’s $3 trillion 401(k) system, including the elimination of most of the $80 billion in annual tax breaks that 401(k) investors receive.

House Education and Labor Committee Chairman George Miller, D-California, and Rep. Jim McDermott, D-Washington, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee’s Subcommittee on Income Security and Family Support, are looking at redirecting those tax breaks to a new system of guaranteed retirement accounts to which all workers would be obliged to contribute.
…
Under Ghilarducci’s plan, all workers would receive a $600 annual inflation-adjusted subsidy from the U.S. government but would be into a guaranteed retirement account required to invest 5 percent of their pay administered by the Social Security Administration. The money in turn would be invested in special government bonds that would pay 3 percent a year, adjusted for inflation.

Krugman Dissing Obama- What a Difference a Year Makes

Paul Krugman: "Maybe House Democrats can pull this out, even with a gaping hole in White House leadership... But I have to say, I'm pretty close to giving up on Mr. Obama, who seems determined to confirm every doubt I and others ever had about whether he was ready to fight for what his supporters believed in."

Live Free or Die Republican

A discussion was started on another blog I frequent that posed the question of what kind of Republican would lead us into the future. The David Frums of the world are looking for moderates a la Susan Collins, the so-cons want another Christian Democrat-lite such as Mike Huckabee, and of course the Wall Streeters are most interested in a Romney-type. But what is happening in the Northeast, both in New Jersey and Massachusetts seems to be the birth of the "live-free-or-die Republican". To quote DaveG at Race42008 emphasis mine:

Scott Brown did not just win simply because he wasn’t a Democrat (I doubt Mike Huckabee would’ve won the seat), nor does he represent the validation of Frum’s call to moderation, given that he isn’t a moderate. Brown’s fiscally conservative, socially libertarian mix is actually more similar to Republicans like Rudy Giuliani, Bill Weld, and any number of Republican officeholders who come and go in Granite State politics.

[A]ll the energy on the Right, all of the new voters making their way into the GOP tent, and all of the folks donating and manning the phone banks and standing out in the snow for hours holding campaign signs are motivated by the desire for freedom, liberty, and small government. That’s because Obama’s vision for the nation is a collectivist, big-government one, and so it would make sense that the opposition party would center around ideals that reflect the starkest contrast to Obama’s world view. And, interestingly, a freedom-based GOP seems to be doing quite well in a region in which the Republican Party had been pronounced dead — the Northeast — winning both the New Jersey governorship and now a Bay State Senate seat in the year since Obama took office. That’s change we can believe in.

So I'll ask the question here. What type of Republican is the future of the movement?

Governement to Borrow $2 Triliion?!?!

File this one in the "They-Just-Don't-Get-It" folder:

Senate Democrats on Wednesday proposed allowing the federal government to borrow an additional $1.9 trillion to pay its bills, a record increase that would permit the national debt to reach $14.3 trillion.

Barney Frank Making Sense...Really!

Much as I usually can't stand Massachusetts Congressman Barney Frank, he was caught making sense today.

"I know some of my Democratic colleagues had been thinking about ways to, in effect, get around the results by working in various parliamentary ways, looking at the rules, trying to get a health care bill passed that would have been the same bill that would have passed if [MA AG] Martha Coakley [D] had won, and I think that's a mistake," Frank said. "I will not support an effort to push through a House-Senate compromise bill despite an election. I'm disappointed in how it came out, but I think electoral results have to be respected."

"I don't think it would be appropriate for the Democrats to say well, we're going to -- for instance, some of the right-wing people were suggesting [Dems] were going to delay seating Sen. Brown so that Sen. [Paul] Kirk, the appointed successor to Sen. Kennedy, could give it the 60th vote. That would be very wrong. I would oppose it, and wouldn't vote for any bill that was a product of that," Frank added.

 (Of course the Machiavelli in me wants the Dems to push through HCR just so conservatives can reap the backlash it would cause.)

RINO's...What are They Good for?

A lot actually. I actually don't like the term, Republicans In Name Only, but it has stuck. Fortunately, every once and a while even a hard right Republican has to appreciate the moderating influence of their more centrist brethren. Alex Knepper over at Race42008 says it better than I:

How the tables have turned. Just five years ago, when chatter about a “permanent Republican majority” was still on the lips of hopeful pundits, Ann Coulter was hailing the prospect of abolishing the filibuster as the common-sense “constitutional option” — and Bill Frist nearly exercised it in the name of passing a few judges. The evil Gang of 14, filled with evil RINOs — John McCain, Olympia Snowe, Lindsey Graham — did something very evil and preserved established historical rule. Most pundits identifying themselves with “the base” lambasted this decision, but prudent commentators praised them: we might be in the minority again soon, and this is a power we might want.
Well, we are in the minority again, and it is a power we want. If we’d exercised that option back then — just a few years back, with the very same members of the Senate we’re counting on now — what could we say? “Do as I say, not as I do”? “The filibuster for me, but not for thee”?
Thank God for RINOs like McCain, Snowe, and Graham. We owe them a lot of thanks right now for their foresight.

Brown's Election Already Making Waves

The New York Times is reporting that top Democrats had started calling moderates last night to halt any party switching or cold feet. In addition:

Head-hunters also are looking at some Democrats, urging them to consider leaving behind the hassle of seeking re-election in this challenging environment to join K Street or lead an association. Already, Representative Earl Pomeroy, Democrat of North Dakota, is being eyed to lead the American Council of Life Insurers.

After Massachusetts, What is Next?

A common meme being forwarded by pundits has moderate Democrats doing one of three things, retiring rather than run for re-election in 2010, tacking to the center to insulate and distance themselves from Obama, or , facing a stiff challenge from a Republican following the "Brown Model".  So who exactly should we be watching? According to Chris Cillizza:

We spoke to a handful of party strategists last night in search of a list of who to keep an eye on. Among the names: Reps. Ike Skelton (Mo.), John Murtha (Pa.), Alan Mollohan (W.Va.), John Dingell (Mich.), John Spratt (S.C.), and Leonard Boswell (Iowa) -- among others. Yes, we know some of these Members have said recently that they plan to run for re-election. We also know that an event like a Republican victory in Massachusetts can change a lot of minds in a hurry. On the Senate side, the two names that come up as potential retirements in the wake of the Coakley mess are Blanche Lincoln (Ark.) and Harry Reid (Nev.). A Reid ally insists retirement is simply not an option for the Majority Leader although the Nevada Democrat was already struggling to gain traction in polls.

Best...Quote...Ever!

"If you lose Massachusetts and that's not a wake-up call, there's no hope of waking up."

-- Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), quoted by ABC News.

Boston Globe Bias in Special Election

Must read from Tom Bevan - a short excerpt:

Let me see if I have this right: there have been six polls of the Massachusetts Senate race released in the last 24 hours, five of which show Scott Brown with leads of 5 points, 7 points, 9 points, 10 points and 10 points, respectively. Only one poll shows the race tied. None of the polls show Martha Coakley with a lead.
How then, you might ask, can the Boston Globe justify characterizing the race as a "dead heat?"

Obama: Year One and What Might Have Been

It has now been a year since President Obama took office and a quick scan of the headlines tells you that many people have opinions on the rookie year of our president- most of them not positive. Peter Wehner of Commentary Magazine seems to sum up the general concensus:

Mr. Obama now has the highest disapproval rating in Gallup’s history for a president entering his second year in office. According to a new Washington Post–ABC News poll, among independents, only 49 percent approve — the lowest of any of his recent predecessors at this point in their presidencies. (Obama has lost a stunning 18 points among independents in just a year’s time.) In November, Democrats suffered crushing defeats in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial campaigns — and if Republican Scott Brown prevails in his race against Martha Coakley in tomorrow’s Senate election in Massachusetts, it will rank among the most important non-presidential elections in our lifetime.

It has been a staggering collapse by a president who entered office with enormous support and an unprecedented amount of goodwill.

I can't help but wonder what might have been. Obama campaigned as a moderate, and if he had tried governing as such, with the huge reservoir of support he started his term with, could have done some real good.

If only he had turned his considerable skills exclusively towards the economy instead of diluting his focusing on the epic lift of health care reform.

If only he had made a concerted effort to bring in some Republicans, working in a truly bipartisan manner, rather than just supply the photo-opts.

If only he had kept his campaign promise to open government up, showing C-Span all negotiations when not matters of national security.

Well, he has three more years to find his centrist legs, unfortunately it may be too late.

Center-Right Nation

Majority of Americans Want Small Government

The Rockefeller Republican has always claimed that the U.S. is a center-right nation. Here is some further proof for that assertion.

A large majority of Americans say they want a smaller government that provides them with fewer services, according to a new poll from the Washington Post and ABC News. But the Washington Post story about the poll makes no mention of this fact.

The poll asked: “Generally speaking, would you say you favor smaller government with fewer services, or larger government with more services?”

Fifty-eight percent said they favor a smaller government with fewer services, and only 38 percent said they favor a larger government with more services.

Massachusetts election of Scott Brown today will be a step in the right direction.

Another Poll...for What it is Worth

As Scott Brown stands outside the TD Garden shaking hands with Bruins fans yet another poll has been released. The National Organization for Marriage says a smallish poll conducted for it by QEV Analytics has Brown up 5. Not sure how much stock I would put in this one, but like most political junkies I follow all data points.

Scott Brown and RINO's

Scott Brown is a moderate Republican of the type the Rockefeller Republican openly supports. He is not however a RINO. Over at The American Spectator, John R. Guardiano give an excellent analysis of this fact. He is an excerpt:

In short, conservatives know that Brown is no "RINO" because when it matters most, and on the issues that are most visible and pressing, he is with them. Bona fide "RINOs," by contrast, seem to take delight in sticking their thumb in the eyes of conservatives. They seem to enjoy abandoning the GOP on key issues and key votes, and at the most inopportune times.

Suffolk University Polling

The bellwether polling, conducted Saturday, Jan. 16, and Sunday, Jan. 17, shows:

• Brown (55 percent) leads Coakley (40 percent) by 15 points in Gardner. Independent candidate Joseph L. Kennedy polls 2 percent, while 3 percent are undecided.
• In Fitchburg, Brown (55 percent) has a 14-point lead over Coakley (41 percent), with 2 percent for Kennedy and 2 percent undecided.
• Peabody voters give Brown (57 percent), a 17-point lead over Coakley (40 percent), with Kennedy polling 1 percent and 3 percent undecided.

Interest in MA Senate Race Drives Traffic

The intense interest in the Massachusetts special election this Tuesday has been driving huge amounts of traffic to many New England-based conservative blogs, and The Rockefeller Republican is no exception. Over the past week there has been nearly ten times the normal number of visitors!

Hopefully, some of you will find your way back here once the excitement is over. Allow me a moment of self promotion. Here at The Rockefeller Republican I try to focus on a center-right ideology in the style of Whole Foods Republicans, Crunchy Cons, and The Main Street Republicans. I value disagreement from both the left and the right as honest debate is the best way to move forward. Here is hoping that debate can be engaged with passion and reason in 2010.

Coakley's Empty Phone Banks and Irish Bookies

Came across anecdotal evidence this morning that no one was showing up for Martha Coakley's phone banks while Scott Brown had more volunteers than phones. Doesn't seem like President Obama's visit did anything to rally enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate.

Further evidence Brown is going to win:

BOSTON –With 24 hours to go before Massachusetts’ special election for a U.S. Senate seat, an Irish bookie already has paid off bettors who wagered that state Sen. Scott Brown, a conservative Republican, would win the seat held for nearly 50 years by liberal Democratic icon Edward M. Kennedy.

Unemployment Update

This is why voters are revolting. We went a trillion dollars into debt...for this?

Obama VS Brown

Great post today from DaveG over at Race42008. The money quote for me, emphasis mine:

In Massachusetts this Tuesday, scores of Obama voters from 2008 in one of the bluest states in the nation will cast a vote not only for a Republican candidate for Senate, but also for the ability of Republicans to filibuster any further Democratic legislation that is deemed to be too leftist. Yes, the Democrats’ monopoly on power in Washington will come to an end because of Massachusetts. That’s a big deal. And it may signal a sea change in the way Americans are thinking about government. Tim Pawlenty was wrong. The era of small government is not over, because Americans are awakening to the reality of the futility of big government. The reality that government can’t actually make goods and services free, that the state can’t transform finite resources into infinite resources, and that the state’s involvement in all of this usually ends up makings things worse for the average American is leading voters to reject corporatist leftism in favor of, well, freedom. And as Douthat and Salam argue with Brooks and Chris Buckley over whether the GOP should have a Huckabee-esque future or a Rockefeller-esque one, Massachusetts shrugs.

National Ramifications of MA Special Election

Chris Cillizza brings up the damage a Scott Brown vicotry could do on Democrats nationally.

It's hard to overestimate the political impact of tomorrow's race in Massachusetts on this November's midterm election. Democratic strategists have already begun to fret privately that a loss by Coakley could set off a chain reaction that could significantly worsen the party's outlook this fall. Democratic members of the House and, to a lesser extent, the Senate, who are already fretting about the possibility of losing their seats in 2010, would almost certainly take Coakley's defeat as an indication of the toxicity of the national environment and head for the hills. Recruitment efforts would also grow far more complicated as convincing ambitious pols to take the risk of running in such an atmosphere would be tricky at best, impossible at worst. To date, Democrats have done an admirable job of keeping retirements in their ranks from spinning out of control. But a loss in a deep-blue state like Massachusetts -- in a race for the late Ted Kennedy's seat no less -- would set off a panic the likes of which hasn't been seen in Democratic electoral politics in a decade or more.

This is what Massachusetts voters are voting for/against. This election has become a referendum on the Democratic leadership of the state and the nation.

Possible Republican Blowout?

On Morning Joe this morning Mike Barnicle stated that he had been talking to Suffolk University pollers who had been canvassing in Massachusetts last night. They were working specifically in bellwether areas of the state to try and get a final read on the mood of the state in terms of the Brown/Coakley senate race.

The word he got was that Scott Brown was ahead by double digits. Is this the makings of an historic blowout? What will that mean for administration's agenda? The 2010 election cycle? The future of the the Democratic stranglehold on Massachusetts politics? Interesting questions we just may get a chance to answer this year.

Final Poll Before MA Senate Election

The final Public Policy Polling survey in Massachusetts finds Scott Brown (R) leading Martha Coakley (D), 51% to 46%, an advantage that is within the margin of error for the poll.

Latest Polls for MA Senate Race

InsideMedford/MRG	1/15 - 1/15	565 LV	51	41	Brown +10
PJM/CrossTarget (R)	1/14 - 1/14	946 LV	54	39	Brown +15
ARG	1/12 - 1/14	600 LV	48	45	Brown +3

What Obama's Visit Means

On Friday I openly wondered whether having the president come to campaign for Coakely signaled bad news for Brown suporters. I theorized that he would not come here to be humiliated by another loss like NJ & VA - he must know something we don't about the state of the race. However, now that Obama has come and gone, I think I have to ammend my theory.

First, it appears that even among the president's inner circle this race has all but become a lost cause.

Second, the venue they chose for today's energizing rally only held 1000 people. Considering the fact that Obama's presence was supposed to be the motivating factor wouldn't it have made more sense to have a very large venue? Perhaps the president knew this was a nonstarter from the beginning but figured he had to at least make an appearance of trying?

Third, Brown's poll numbers just continue to rise. A Merriman River Group poll in Massachusetts finds that Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley, 50.8% to 41.2%.

The best part? Watching the local coverage of today's competeing rallies was revealing. The main story line from the Coakley rally- Obama needed to come to try and save her. The main story line from Scott's- they had so many people there they needed to close down Main Street.

A Picture Worth 1,000 Words

Hat tip: Red Mass

The Final Nail in Coakley's Electoral Coffin

In a radio interview, Martha Coakley (D) claimed that Red Sox great Curt Schilling was a Yankee fan.
Does she even live in Massachusetts? This insults the entire state. How could she not know the person who brought the Red Sox their first World Series championship in 86 years.

Obama's Gamble in the Bay State

President Obama is now scheduled to come to the Bay State on Sunday to stump for Martha Coakley and attempt to breath life into a floundering campaign. However, you have to wonder, why? Even Coakley's own internal polls now show her trailing challenger Scott Brown. After suffering two fairly large embarrassments in New Jersey and Virginia just a few months ago you would think the administration would be reticent to wade into these waters again.

Unless...

Does the White House know something we don't? Do they see a clear enough path to victory that they are willing to send the "speechifier" in chief to rally the troops? Or is this a last gasp desperation move realizing that if Brown wins then plenty of moderate Democrat legislators will see the writing on the wall and begin to abandon the ultra liberal agenda the administration is pursuing?

Bottom Continues to Fall Out for Coakley

A new poll taken Thursday evening for Pajamas Media by CrossTarget - an Alexandria VA survey research firm - shows Scott Brown, a Republican, leading Martha Coakley, a Democrat, by 15.4% in Tuesday's special election for the open Massachusetts US Senate seat.

The poll of 946 likely voters was conducted by telephone using interactive voice technology (IVR) and has a margin of error of +/- 3.19%.

Brown in the Lead

A new Suffolk University/7News poll in Massachusetts finds Scott Brown (R) beating Martha Coakley (D), 50% to 46%. Best of all?  Only 1 percent of voters remain undecided, and 51 percent of voters saying they oppose the "national near-universal health-care package."

Said pollster David Paleologos: "It's a Brown-out. It's a massive change in the political landscape."

Obama Couldn't Win Today...UPDATE

A new Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll show that only 39% of Americans would vote for President Obama in 2012. What a difference 12 months makes. This time last year he had record approval ratings.

It will be interesting to see if Republicans, (or Tea Partiers?) come up with a second way, or simply run as "not-Obama."

UPDATE:

This poll was not of likely voters, not even of voters; this poll was a poll of "adults". It is a common belief that the more stringently the likely voter method is followed the more conservative the poll trends, so if this poll was simply of adults it was arguably the most Democrat-friendly poll you could take. Makes the results all the more telling.

MA Senate Race Endorsements

The State Police Association of Massachusetts endorsed Scott Brown’s bid for U.S. Senate, he also received the support of the Commissioned Officers Association of the Massachusetts State Police, a body that represents state troopers at the rank of lieutenant and above.

Isn't Martha Coakley the Attorney General, the head law enforcer of the state and a Democrat? Shouldn't she be getting the support of a law enforcement union?

Just asking.

Liberal Establishment is Nervous

Charles D. Ellison who writes at The Huffington Post shows the concerns liberals are having about the possible Senate upset.

There is now the visualization of a New Jersey or Virginia-style upset, with Brown able to appear as the more "attractive" candidate in contrast to the stale Coakley (Dems should be game to this after hitting fouls on cats like Deeds and Corzine). Reports of Coakley's lack of energy should be cause for alarm.

The other factor is Governor Deval Patrick, the embattled incumbent up for re-election who - last checked - is only a point or two ahead in a three-way matchup. The questions are few within the Beltway about how this plays out for Coakley. Even with an independent in that mix, an unpopular Patrick is barely edging ahead. Democrats should be concerned how the Senate race impacts Patrick's chances and how Patrick's polling could help Brown find lucky charms.

MA State Police Endorse Scott Brown

MA Senate Race Continues to Tighten

From Political Wire emphasis mine:
A new Rasmussen Reports survey of likely voters in MA shows Martha Coakley (D) leading Scott Brown (R) in their race for U.S. Senate by just 2 points, 49% to 47%.

Last week, she led by nine points in this survey.

Meanwhile, Greg Sargent has obtained a campaign memo to top national Democratic donors claiming internal polling shows the race is "very tight" and making an "urgent" appeal for donations.

Political Wire has heard that internal polling that showed Coakley ahead by 14 points last week, now shows her ahead by just five points.

Good News in The Bay State This Week

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Massachusetts shows Gov. Deval Patrick (D) with just 29% support, followed by Charlie Baker (R) at 27% and Timothy Cahill (I) at 21%. Patrick's overall approval rating sits at just 22%.

From the poll: "Among the undecideds in that three way scenario Patrick's approval rating is just 7%, with 72% of those voters disapproving of his job performance. Those folks may end up with Baker or they may end up with Cahill but either way 30-35% is looking like a peak for Patrick right now and that makes his chances at reelection pretty tenuous."

Harold Ford's Unfortunate Flip Flops

I have always liked Harold Ford Jr. even though I disagreed with him on many issues. However, now that he is running so NY Senator he seems to be flip flopping an awful lot. To be fair, so did my candidate in '08 (Romney). A.C. Kleinheider in the Nashville Post:

"Whether or not Harold Ford Jr. pulls the trigger on a Democratic primary challenge to U.S. Senator Kristen Gillibrand, one thing is certain: Harold Ford Jr. can't go home again."

"While carpetbagging can work in New York, a failed carpetbagger returning home with a tail between his legs wouldn't go over well. By changing his voter registration, declaring himself pro-choice and pro-gay marriage, Ford Jr. has effectively disqualified himself from Tennessee politics."

I Can Dream Can't I?

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Massachusetts finds Scott Brown (R) leads Martha Coakley (D), 48% to 47%, and is "buoyed by a huge advantage with independents and relative disinterest from Democratic voters in the state."

Massachusetts' Miracle?

From Public Policy Polling:

-At this point a plurality of those planning to turn out oppose the health care bill. The massive enthusiasm gap we saw in Virginia is playing itself out in Massachusetts as well. Republican voters are fired up and they're going to turn out. Martha Coakley needs to have a coherent message up on the air over the last ten days that her election is critical to health care passing and Ted Kennedy's legacy- right now Democrats in the state are not feeling a sense of urgency.

-Scott Brown's favorables are up around 60%, a product of his having had the airwaves to himself for the last week. By comparison Bob McDonnell's were at 55% right before his election and Chris Christie's were only at 43%. Coakley's campaign or outside groups need to tie Brown's image to national Republicans and knock him down a notch over the final week of the campaign.

John Hoeven and the center-right resurgence

From Race42012's Alex Knepper emphasis mine:

Hoeven’s political philosophy checks the right boxes for the right-wing base: he is pro-life with the proper caveats (rape and mother’s life), against same-sex marriage and card check, and is a strong supporter of gun rights and additional oil exploration in America. But he also favors the de-federalization of drug laws, increasing spending on education, and committing more funds to infrastructure development. Indeed, during Hoeven’s tenure, the state’s budget has increased dramatically, with bi-partisan support from the state legislature. But little of this has been for pet projects: whatever criticism can be lobbed Hoeven’s way for enacting it, the increased spending has gone mostly toward higher education and infrastructure — broadly-popular measures, by anyone’s standard.

According to a December 2009 Rasmussen poll, Hoeven sports an 87% approval rating after a decade in office. That’s not a typo. He’d have crushed even Byron Dorgan by twenty-two points, and his now-certain entry into the Senate race ensures that the center-right resurgence spearheaded by people like Meg Whitman has found another leader.

Even Ahhrrnold Doesn't Like It

Jake Tapper reports that California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)formally withdrew his support for the health care reform legislation being voted on this month on Capitol Hill, stating "it is not reform to push more costs onto states that are already struggling while other states get sweetheart deals." He endorsed the Democratic efforts during the fall.

Schwarzenegger wants California's congressional delegation to "either vote against this bill that is a disaster for California or get in there and fight for the same sweetheart deal Senator Nelson of Nebraska got for the Cornhusker State. He got the corn; we got the husk."

And this from a (sort of) Republican who is rumored to be in line for a position in the Obama administration.

Possible Pick-Up for GOP?

Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) "dropped a late-day bombshell, announcing he will retire when his term ends this year," USA Today reports.

Why is that important? Because President Obama got just 45% of the vote in ND. And, popular Gov. John Hoeven (R) is expected to run.

Brown Within Striking Distance in MA

A new Rasmussen Reports survey in Massachusetts finds Martha Coakley (D) leading Scott Brown (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 41%.

If Brown come close without winning, watch for the conservative backlash against the GOP establishment which has done nothing for the race.

Scott Brown's Chances in MA

I have to agree with Erick Erickson's assesment of the Massachusetts senate race. Here is a excerpt:

The odds are against Scott Brown, but only slightly. This race is winnable. Before you dismiss it or dismiss Scott Brown because he is a New England Republican, just remember — we still need 51 votes to control the Senate. Scott Brown gives us one. He may be like Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins and hack us off frequently on domestic policy issues, but he’s right on health care and he seems more right than not on foreign affairs.

And Scott Brown’s victory would give Barack Obama a huge black eye.

Romney's Book Tour

The March 2 release of Mitt Romney's No Apology: The Case for American Greatness "will kick off a month-long tour taking the former Massachusetts governor to at least 18 states, including Iowa, where Romney's presidential campaign collapsed nearly two years ago after a second-place caucus finish," the Boston Globe reports.

"But Romney, considered by many in the party to be the default Republican front-runner for the 2012 nomination, is approaching the book tour with the patient, workmanlike mien that has distinguished him from other probable contenders who seem far more eager for attention."